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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-30T03:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45395/-1
CME Note: Large partial-halo CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an X1.4 flare from Active Region 14405 (S27E45) peaking at 2026-03-30T03:19Z. The source is associated with brightening, dimming, moving/opening field lines, and EUV wave as seen in GOES SUVI 195, 304, 284, 131, 094, and 171 starting around 2026-03-30T02:56Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-04-01T11:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-31T15:07Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45403/1
Model Inputs:
2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001 with Final CME Analysis based on all available coronagraph imagery: Lon.=-43.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=1689.0, HalfAngle=46.0, Time21.5=2026-03-30T05:19Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-03-31T15:07Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =23.5 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7
(kp)90=6
(kp)180=8

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-04-02T07:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 46.87 hour(s)
Difference: 20.37 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2026-03-30T12:37Z

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